Good news for 2036
Previously we’ve covered the extensive tracking and modeling of near-earth objects NASA undertakes as well as efforts to pass along data to the public via the internet. In Ben’s post about modeling near-earth objects he wrote about a specific asteroid designated 99942 Apophis. Discovered in 2004, it has been closely scrutinized by astronomers worldwide as it’s size and potential for collision with Earth have sparked interest.
Meet Apophis. Discovered in 2004, it will likely set a record for harmless near earth pass in 2029.
Earlier data pointed to the asteroid potentially passing through a troublesome gravitational keyhole which increased the threat to Earth in 2036, however new data from previously unreleased images from a University of Hawaii telescope near the summit of Mauna Kea have allowed NASA scientists to improve their models. New models show a reduced risk of collision in 2036 from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 250,000.
From the NASA press release:
“The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared,” said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL.
Modeling asteroids and allowing humanity a chance to risk assess is only one example of the power of computer modeling. However, this example also illustrates one important caveat about modeling. One’s model is only as good as the data utilized in generating and analyzing it. Let’s hope that future data on Apophis continues to produce good news.